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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.