Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
