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The Palestinian faction is likely to demand substantial changes to the US administration's peace plan for Gaza but may ultimately agree to the framework in the coming days as a foundation for fresh talks, according to analysts and insiders familiar with the organization.

Trump's Deadline and Plan Details

Trump set a deadline of “three or four days” from Tuesday for Hamas to respond to his comprehensive proposal, which seeks to end the two-year conflict in the Gaza Strip and enable an seemingly open-ended global oversight of the war-torn territory, or face severe repercussions.

Gaza-based analyst Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that Hamas now faces a decision between “two difficult options.” Abusada continued, “Should they refuse Trump's plan, as the US president has emphasized, the outcome will be unfavorable and will permit Israel to do whatever it takes to end the conflict. They will say ‘yes, however we require this and that’.”

Hamas's Key Concerns

Hugh Lovatt commented that it would be very difficult for Hamas to accept the conditions without reservations. “That is understandable. The text is vague. But anything other than total and final acceptance will be used against the group by Israel, the US government, and perhaps the European Union,” he explained.

Benjamin Netanyahu has endorsed the US proposal, which incorporated several of the country's key demands and was formulated without consulting Hamas.

Netanyahu, who is sought for suspected war crimes by the ICC from the military campaign in the territory, has stated that the country would “complete its mission” if Hamas refused the proposal or delayed its implementation. Earlier this year, Israel ended a 60-day ceasefire, declining to move to a planned second phase that might have definitively ended the conflict.

Internal Disagreements and Outside Influence

The group's leadership are split among Turkey, Doha, and Gaza, which complicates discussions on the group's response. Turkish officials and Qatari authorities are urging Hamas to make concessions.

A major sticking point is the proposal's demand that the faction surrender weapons, a insider familiar with the organization said. The handover of all weapons would be extremely hard for the militants to accept, particularly without any negotiated settlement or substantial progress toward a two-state solution.

“There exist different trends inside the organization. Those in Doha are often more practical, especially compared to the armed wing in the Strip. There is an obvious necessity to secure the support of the armed faction, and the rank and file fighters,” the analyst said.

War Background and Civilian Toll

The war were triggered by the Hamas raid into southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of over a thousand people, mostly civilians. About two hundred fifty were captured, of whom forty-eight are still in the territory, though fewer than half are surviving.

Over 66,000 individuals, largely non-combatants, have been fatally injured by Israel's offensive in Gaza, much of the territory left in rubble, and most of the 2.3 million residents forced from their homes many times.

The US Proposal Details

Trump's proposal will mandate the militants to free the remaining captives within three days of a ceasefire starting, the phased pullback of IDF troops to a buffer zone along the border, and a increase of relief supplies. It also stipulates the Israeli government to release over a thousand Palestinian prisoners, many serving life sentences, which Hamas could portray as a significant win.

An additional concern for the faction is the unclear assurance of Israeli withdrawals, though the explicit mention that there will be no annexation or occupation of Gaza by Israel was welcomed by one source close to Hamas.

The Group's Present Situation and Strength

Experts argue that divisions within Hamas are often overstated.

“It is unlikely there is a genuine division between the Gaza leadership, the West Bank, and the outside leadership. All factions concur on opposing the weapons surrender because the military resistance is a core tenet in their identity and ethos,” said Michael Milshtein.

Hamas has suffered major losses in the conflict. Many of fighters have been killed, along with nearly every top commanders. Research by ACLED found that at least 40 leaders and important figures in Hamas's military wing had been killed by Israeli airstrikes since spring. These losses have left only one top leader from Hamas's pre-7 October command structure remaining active, the group said.

However the faction continues insurgent activities and maintains fragments of administration in the absence of any alternative. Aid workers in the territory reported that the group still had a significant influence in Gaza City, the “refugee areas” in the south, and the beach area of a coastal region.

Hamas, which was established in the late 1980s, has enlisted thousands of new fighters who, though inexperienced and poorly equipped, can inflict casualties on Israeli forces.

The expert noted that, according to military sources, ninety percent of Hamas commanders had been killed, 97% of its missiles used or neutralized, but only forty percent of the faction's vast underground system had been eliminated. “The group has adapted to the new conditions. They are active in zones where the IDF has stated the group is eliminated, but it is impossible to completely destroy them. They have metamorphosed and they persist,” he said.

Internal Resistance to the Plan

Some inside Hamas are determined to rejecting the Trump plan outright.

“There is a trend from the military wing, particularly the younger fighters, which wants to keep fighting,” the analyst explained. “Their view is that Israel is struggling strategically: the mobilization of reservists is a huge burden, national votes are due within a year or so, there is growing international and domestic pressure … So, for them, it’s just a matter of who will endure longer.”